Fundamentals, Event Driven, but Sometimes Technical

Tian Xuan Zhou (Oliver)
Bachelors Student, New European College – Munich

Asia markets

Japan

Right market, right time, just not completely right on the single stocks. Turns out the one that I did not decide to buy outperformed all last week. Fanuc 6954 +10.78%. I jumped the gun on them rather early. One week early, to be precise, currently -3.5% on Monday premarket at the time of writing.

Obayashi 1802, +6.33 last week. Very solid, as of writing this Japanese markets have already opened for Monday. Seeing a very similar open like last Friday as in the opening price but much weaker buy volume, so to me a good technical buy today as it has already bounced off day lows of Friday. But I am not expecting to reach the highs of Friday since volume is weaker but looking to form a higher high on the daily graph. Still a long time for the time being.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries 7011 +0.55% last week. Although not involved with the headlines or news in the US or Middle East, it is picking up a lot of interest on potential export controls or joint technology transfers and development programs with other defense contractors such as Lockheed and BAE systems. Seeing huge opening volume Monday morning, +2.27% on Monday as of writing this.

IHI Corporation 7013, flat last week, similar story with the volume. There are planned missile deployments near Taiwan by 2031. Japan’s Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi announced plans to station surface to air missiles on Yonaguni Island, the westernmost Japanese territory near Taiwan, as part of bolstering regional defenses amid escalating tensions with China.

Daikin Industries 6367, flat last week. This is the new cooling technology name that I added instead of Eaton. Also an influx of volume on opening. Maybe the sales people (brokers and financial advisors) have convinced more people to buy into Japan.

HK/CN

The wait is almost over, I hope. The upcoming National People’s Congress (starts ~March 5) is expected to formalize growth targets likely around 4.5% – 5.0% and outline key priorities for the new five-year plan. Most importantly to us, potential in enhancing fiscal and monetary policy coordination to stimulate the domestic market. The main concern I have right now is that perhaps institutions that have more information than me have decided that the potential or the upcoming policy is, well to say the least weak, therefore explaining this very high volume sell off Monday morning (morning because it is kind of significant in many index components, instead of geopolitical news.

Home appliance. Haier Smarthome 6690HK and TCL Electronics 1070HK, still a good positive trend but being dragged down by sector and index. 6690HK specifically trading in much of a range, perhaps an event driven upwards break with potential policy news.

Xiaomi 1810HK. Reaching my lowest range valuation of $32 HKD and once again challenging the previous low. Let’s see if I am really wrong. Other than the 17 Ultra smartphone, an AirTag clone, and an ultra slim powerbank being released, a concept car is being announced, furthermore leaked YU7 GT models that are coming to Europe and a potential YU9 model as part of the 2026 product roadmap. Speaking of which, EVs delivered are over 20,000 Units in February amid holiday. Seeing a lot of short interest so if I am right, I am very right. My best guess the covers are at $35 and more at $37.

Cathay Pacific 0293HK, talking about HALO trades these few weeks. HSBC Global Research published a report indicating that Hong Kong International Airport’s passenger traffic is expected to grow steadily by 15% YoY in 2025, mainly driven by the new terminal 2. Further supported by Hong Kong’s economic recovery, real GDP grew by 3.5% in 2025, exceeding the 2.6% growth in 2024. Buy volume is back but being dragged down because of the Iran conflict? -3% is a lot, buying into this Monday, most likely before close.

ENN Energy Holdings. Simple idea, China will use more energy. Holding on very well with very weak volume but speaking of volume big buy volume pre market. Also entering position Monday.

US market

First very very big mistake here. Started the US session with an instant stop loss fill for Novo, how can I forget trial result dates, unforgivable really. As for the rest of the week, really really good technical trades.

Lam research. Still up considerably but -3.5% last week, dragged down by the tech sell off. I would actually consider this a safe trade just like HALO, chip shortage as I have mentioned multiple times before. Their technology is very much needed, still holding.

Buying back into Redwire as an aerospace defence idea and drone concept, should be decent for the short term due to the short covers.

Added Palantir back after a really really long time on a partial defensive stock idea, sure they’ll boast somehow about how they are involved with this conflict with Iran somehow. Also after the fall from the highs from last year, some sort of support has been found now trading in a range. Saw the stock challenge the lows last Tuesday, very volatile so only wicked into the bottom resistance range and then 3 solid days in a row breaking this 136 support that I have drawn, next levels I have at 140 and 145, both psychological levels and previously tested levels, notably on the 18th last month.

Second is Zscaler. Stock was getting nuked into this set of results on concerns of cashflow and annual recurring revenue concerns. Saw buy volume 24th, 25th and 26th but when results were released it was down. Saw it bottom out at $140.56 then breaking the first intraday resistance at MA20 and then entered at 143.535 then saw it break the VWAP resistance. Fundamentally looks good to me, EPS, revenue and ARR all beat by 25% or higher. Will monitor this day by day.

Beyond meat. By far my best trade of the week, +37% on the week. They are facing a class action lawsuit on major securities fraud, so as expected stock price is getting nuked. So from my perspective, I am seeing a consistent trend down from Jan 22nd to Feb 5th. This trend is disrupted on the 6th with a weak move up, no volume. The following weeks were rather flat with no volume but never challenged the lows of Feb 5th again, the put call ratio was weird, 93% of all interest in options were calls, most notably strike price at $1. With it trading flat, the short sellers have to take profit and squeeze soon, since the short interest is high, it is a lawsuit on securities fraud after all. I had a range in mind of a high end of 0.77 and low end of 0.69 since it has challenged these two levels multiple times and failed the two weeks prior.

So when stock price challenged the lows on Monday overnight session and failed, I entered Tuesday’s opening session at 0.7054 per share after it opened above all three of my MAs and VWAP overnight. The 0.77 level was then broken the following day, then my next level at 0.82, since this level was wicked the weeks prior, was reached on Thursday just before the close. These levels are where I suspect the buy orders are for the short sellers. Maybe I am wrong but a +25% on the 24th hit my target price of $1 (the second time as it disrupted the trend and MA resistance) and took me out. Still riding on a little bit just in case earnings call surprises and it breaks further to the upside but majority is out. Short interest is going crazy again, maybe I can replicate this somehow.